Our 49ers vs Broncos prediction starts with full marks to Denver for finding a way back from a 16-0 halftime hole against the Rams last weekend to get the money and the outright win. A flurry of things conspired to help the Broncos pull it off, but nevertheless, Bo Nix has now come from behind to win 14 times since the start of last season, and Denver is 17-4 over its last 21 regular-season games.
The sledding could come a little tougher Sunday in San Francisco.
49ERS OFFENSE KEEPS ROLLING
Despite all of the injuries, the 49ers are getting MVP-type play from Brock Purdy. And while this is a game outside the conference, San Francisco should be playing with an edge. The NFC West is uber-competitive, and every game matters.
George Kittle has been as good as ever given all of the injuries the Niners have incurred at wide receiver, while Deebo Samuel somehow found a way to score an 80-yard touchdown last week without catching a pass, taking a lateral to the house.
Kyle Shanahan's offense has yet to miss a beat, especially at home, and that should continue here. The key will be San Francisco playing from ahead and putting pressure on a Denver side that could be ill-equipped to come from multiple scores down on the road—especially after the 49ers saw what happened to their division rival Rams last Sunday night.
DENVER'S DEFENSIVE NUMBERS ARE A CONCERN
Denver was outgained by 225 yards Sunday. The Broncos rank 29th in overall defense through three games and 30th against the run.
That's a dangerous profile against a San Francisco offense that ranks fifth in total offense and allows fewer sacks than anyone in the league.
If the 49ers establish the run and keep Brock Purdy clean, Denver could spend much of Sunday playing from behind rather than controlling the game the way it would prefer.
WHY SAN FRANCISCO HAS VALUE
The Niners didn't get the money last week, which allows them to offer a little more value here with the number sitting inside a field goal as of Saturday afternoon.
San Francisco is 5-0 ATS after failing to cover the previous week and 11-4 ATS after allowing 30-plus points in a game.
Expect the defense to be more focused in this spot and the offense to build a lead that won't allow Denver another opportunity to steal the game late or sneak through the back door.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Denver overcame a 16-0 halftime deficit last week but was outgained by 225 yards.
• The Broncos rank 29th in overall defense and 30th against the run through three games.
• San Francisco ranks fifth in total offense and has allowed fewer sacks than any team in the league.
• Brock Purdy continues to play at an MVP level despite San Francisco's injuries.
• San Francisco is 5-0 ATS after failing to cover the previous week and 11-4 ATS after allowing 30-plus points.
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THE PICK
San Francisco 49ers -2.5
Lay it!