Patriots vs Jaguars starts with our number: our model makes this game roughly a pick’em, and we’re getting New England +3. We see two closely matched teams. We’ll take the three with the defense that has been harder to move the ball against.
Patriots vs Jaguars: New England’s Defensive Edge
Through two games, the Patriots have allowed 16 total points and just one offensive touchdown. Opponents have converted only 4 of 23 third downs. New England ranks third in defensive EPA per play and second against the pass. Those numbers come from a small sample, but they show how this defense can control a game: it gets offenses behind schedule, then gets off the field.
The pressure is a real part of that picture. New England has six sacks and has generated pressure on 46.7% of its blitzes. Christian Gonzalez gives the Patriots a corner they can trust in man coverage, freeing the defense to send help after the quarterback.
Jacksonville’s Protection Is the Matchup
Trevor Lawrence opened the season with four touchdown passes against Cleveland. Denver showed how different the Jaguars look when he doesn’t have a clean pocket. Lawrence went 17 of 29 for 189 yards, no touchdowns and an interception in last week’s 20–13 loss. Denver hit him seven times and sacked him twice; Jacksonville gained only 56 yards on its final three drives.
That gives us a clear path to the bet. New England doesn’t need to shut down every Jaguars weapon. It needs to make Lawrence hurry, force a few third-and-longs and keep Jacksonville from stacking scoring drives. The Jaguars’ protection is worth watching again this week, with offensive linemen Robert Hainsey and Cole Van Lanen both limited in Wednesday’s practice.
Maye Has an Opening, Too
New England’s offense has work to do, especially with A.J. Brown and Mike Onwenu on injured reserve. But Jacksonville has allowed 9.3 yards per pass attempt and 493 passing yards through two games. There should be room for Drake Maye to make plays if the Patriots protect him well enough and avoid the turnovers that hurt them in Seattle. Romeo Doubs gave them 96 receiving yards against Pittsburgh, and TreVeyon Henderson’s return added another way to create a big play.
We’ve accounted for the Patriots’ offensive concerns in our number. We still make this matchup close to even, with a defense capable of putting Jacksonville under pressure and an offense that has opportunities against the Jaguars’ pass defense.
The FeedMe Play
Patriots +3. Our model says this is a near pick’em; the matchup gives New England ways to win it. We’re putting our money on the Patriots at the full three.